Kosovo independence could harm Balkans: analysts

AFP, 18 novembre 2005 03:04

 

SKOPJE, Nov 18 - Granting Kosovo independence from Serbia could stir up separatist movements among ethnic Albanian minorities in other parts of the Balkans, analysts said ahead of the start of talks on the province's future status.

 

Some leaders in the fragile region, where ethnic tensions have led to a series of wars since 1991, fear another change of borders could provoke separatist demands by ethnic Albanian minorities in countries surrounding Kosovo.

 

"All Kosovo politicians, including President Ibrahim Rugova, should sign a declaration that would exclude any possible unification of territories with majority Albanian population in the region," said Macedonian Prime Minister Vlado Buckovski.

 

Macedonia, which borders Serbia and its province of Kosovo, offered shelter to tens of thousands of Kosovo Albanians fleeing the province in 1999 under repression of the regime of then Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic.

 

But only two years later, its own ethnic Albanian minority -- which makes up one quarter of the ex-Yugoslav republic's population of two million -- took up arms demanding more rights for its community.

 

The fighting ended after seven months with a peace deal brokered by the international community, and one of the main rebel leaders is now a member of the ruling coalition government.

 

"Ethnic Macedonians have serious fears of possible Kosovo independence, based on their own experience with ethnic Albanians," analyst Ljubomir Frckoski told AFP.

 

A recent poll in Macedonia showed a "majority of Albanians support the independence of Kosovo, while most Macedonians are sceptical towards it," said Dane Teleski of a local think-tank "Skopje."

 

"But Macedonians are not against independence if there are firm guarantees by the international community that it will not have any impact on the territorial integrity of the country," he said.

 

Such a stance was echoed by Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski, who said recently that Macedonia "is neither afraid of an independent Kosovo, nor of Kosovo within Serbia-Montenegro."

 

"What we want and insist is for Kosovo to be a territory with established legal order that will respect all international standards," Crvenkovski said.

 

Frckoski warned the "almost non-existent borders between Kosovo and Macedonia make the area a grave zone dominated by organised crime that can lead the region into chaos."

 

Fears of another armed conflict have also been spread with on-and-off presence of the Albanian National Army (ANA), an underground militant organisation grouping former Kosovo rebels and favoring unity of the ethnic community in the Balkans.

 

In 2001, ANA fighters were said to have joined ethnic Albanian rebels of the Macedonia-based guerrilla group National Liberation Army (NLA), clashing with Skopje security forces.

 

The ANA, listed as a "terrorist organisation" by the UN mission in Kosovo due to a number of armed attacks, has said it wants to set up a state grouping all ethnic Albanians in Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and southern Serbia and Montenegro -- if needed through a war.

 

Ethnic Albanian politicians in the region have denounced ANA demands, but vowed support for Kosovo independence.

 

"The will of Kosovo citizens for independence should be respected, and thus the whole region would be stabilised," said Rafiz Haliti, top official of the ruling Democratic Union for Integration (DUI).

 

Ethnic Albanians living in southern Serbia -- a scene of armed clashes between Serb forces and the separatist rebels in 2001 -- have stopped short from backing Kosovo's independence, being warned both by Belgrade and the international community that their problems are not the same.

 

But they warned their own requests for more rights would have to be put on the agenda soon.

 

"Belgrade, Pristina and the international community have to discuss the status of Kosovo, but at one moment, we will also have to be involved in this process," said local Albanian leader Reza Halimi.

 

And tiny Montenegro, whose leadership has also called for independence from Serbia, has managed to calm separatist claims by its Albanian minority by improving their political and civil rights and involving the community in state and local affairs.